Beschreibung
This book is based on a number of systems concepts, of which the following are emphasized here: oThe interacting systems of society and the environment are dynamic and evolution ary oEvolution of these systems carries them through stages of differential stability and instability, continuity and discontinuity oAssociated with evolution and instability is structural change that is essentially irre versible oThe present is a stage of world transformation that may not have been equaled for decades or even centuries oPolicies and decisions must match the times, in the present case the stage of world transformation The time 11:59:59 PM, approximately, on December 31, 2000 has an impor tant symbolic meaning. It marks the end of a minute, the end of an hour, the end of a day, the end of a year, the end of a decade, the end of a century, and the end of a millennium. The time and date provide a convenient yardstick against which we can evaluate the evolution of our thinking and the adequacy of our assumptions, mental models, paradigms, and policies. Will the beginning tum out to be appropriately dif ferent from the end? We hope that this book is helpful in such evaluation. This is a new-paradigm book, which both presents and advances the new way of thinking about the systems of science, technology, society, economics, politics, and the environment, and actively calls for the replacement of the worn out cognitive/sociotechnical paradigm.
Autorenporträt
Inhaltsangabe1. Policy Challenges in a World of Nonlinearity and Structural Change.- and Main Assumptions and Problem Sets.- New Thinking for New Times.- The Newtonian Paradigm.- The New Paradigm.- What is Policymaking?.- Policy Reality.- Cognitive/Emotional Models of Policymakers and Decisionmakers.- Do Policymakers and Decisionmakers Necessarily Think Systemically?.- Is Systems Thinking Easily Developed?.- A Simple Mathematical Model of Nonlinearity.- Structural Change the Kondratiev and Hegemonic Cycles/Structures and the Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World.- Civilization.- The Kondratiev Cycle/Structure.- The Hegemonic Cycle/Structure.- The Life Cycle of the Present Stage of World Civilization.- Let the Policy Fit the Time.- Limited, Incorrect, or Failed Past Policies.- Conclusions and Recommendations-Policy Guidance.- References.- 2. Policy in a World of Evolution, Learning, and Ignorance.- Application of Inappropriate "Scientific" Theories to the Human Domain.- Real Complexity and the Idea of Rational Policymaking and Decisionmaking Are Incompatible.- On the Deficiencies of Economic "Science".- The Separation and Isolation of Expertise.- The Scientific Handling of Change, and Levels of Description.- The Mechanical and Organic Open-Systems Paradigms Further Contrasted.- Evolutionary Drive.- Positive-Feedback Traps.- Competition of Closely Similar Activities.- Applications for Policy Exploration: From Settlement To Finance.- Spatial Economics and Settlement Patterns.- Evolutionary Economics.- Management of Natural Resources.- Discussion.- References.- 3. Adaptive Control and Conflict Resolution for International Stability.- Getting from Here (1992) to There (2000).- Overview of International Stability and Conflict Resolution Issues.- Present Period Is One of Rapid World Change.- Changes from the Past Are Possible in the Future.- Methodology Needed for Constructive Change.- Clearer Understanding of International Stability Needed.- Peace/War/Peace Process Understanding Needed.- Different Value Systems and Bases for Judging Nations Exist.- Role of Closed-Loop Concepts in Steering Nations to the Future.- Adaptive and Predictive Aspects of Guiding Nations.- Roles of References, Constraints, Perceptions, and Ideology.- Conflict Resolution for Settling Disputes.- Education to Facilitate Change.- A Cooperative Security System.- Work Breakdown Structure of Activities.- Obstacles to Peace.- The Peace/War/Peace Process and Some of its Elements.- Frameworks.- International Stability and Peace.- What Is Peace?.- Negative Peace.- Stable Peace.- Unstable Peace.- Positive Peace.- Nation Block Diagrams.- Perceptions.- Peace/War/Peace Time (Activity) Cycle.- Normal, Alert, or Emergency Conditions of International Policymaking and Decision-Making.- Adaptive Control Features for International Relationships.- Basic Assumptions about the International System and Conflict.- International System Is Made Up of Sovereign States.- International Conflicts Are Inevitable.- There Are Organized Procedures for Resolving Conflicts.- Potential Areas for Conflict Needing Resolution Can Be Identified.- Measurement Means and Criteria for Monitoring Can Be Found.- Various Possible Alternative Actions Can Be Explored.- Incentives and Motivations for Peace Can Be Developed.- Elements of Conflict Resolution.- The Eight Elements in Order of Use.- Potential Areas for International Conflict.- Progress Toward International Stability and Peace.- Common Security Objectives.- Influence of the Past, Present, and Future on National Attitudes.- Decrease the Likelihood of War, Increase the Likelihood of Peace.- What is to be Done Now?.- Conclusions.- References.- 4. Field-Theoretic Framework for Systems Theory and Systems Thinking.- The Nature and History of Field Theory Applied to Nonliving and Living Systems.- Nonliving Systems.- Living Systems.- Alternative or Complementary Perspectives on.- Field Theory and on World Systems.- The Aftermath of Lewin's Field Theory.- World System
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Springer Verlag GmbH
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69121 Heidelberg
DE
E-Mail: juergen.hartmann@springer.com
